Month: March 2021

I almost feel sorry for Erin O’Toole today. I say almost because it was his political organization and his staff’s work on the policy convention that has pretty much handed him a loss in the next election. Losing the fight for pro-O’Toole delegates at the riding level selection meetings, cost O’Toole dearly at the convention.

Just think four more years of Trudeau because a majority of Conservative delegates cannot see climate change as a reality.

The Conservative spin machine is in overdrive doing damage control. They need to understand that no one is listening to them.

After losing the vote they are trying to say that adding these few words “we recognize that climate change is real. The Conservative Party is willing to act.”  was just tinkering with what was already in the platform etc. is BS. You do not move a motion at a national policy convention unless you really believe those few lines are essential to the party’s success.

The spin team is also reaching back to past leaders for proof that the Conservatives are tough on climate issues. Well, the Conservative team lost back then and in the last election as well. Come to think of it, isn’t it a standard Conservative talk point to criticize the Liberals for reaching back in time to the Harper era?

The issue for O’Toole and the next Conservative leader and the next one after that will always be how to attract more voters to the party. It will be tough going as the Liberals have successfully framed the Conservatives as climate deniers and on other issues as well.

Perception in politics is reality. Just as the Conservatives successfully framed Dion as incompetent and Ignatieff as just visiting, the Liberals have successfully framed the Conservatives on the climate issue. Thanks to the convention delegates, O’Toole is now a wounded leader with a tough road ahead of him.

The Liberal platform is taking shape- run on climate change (try and grab some Green Party and NDP votes), abortion (the one issue Conservatives can never seem to shut down), a national day care program (which will appeal to millennials) and maybe toss in some type of universal basic income program.

Good luck Erin, you are going to need a lot of it.

The Conservatives always underestimate Trudeau and they have been doing that for years. Remember the attack ads based on “He Is Not Ready.” The same can be said of the present Conservative team.

A recent Ipsos poll had the CPC at 28%, one of the lowest numbers since the party was created and this is with a new leader.

A lot of this can be attributed to messaging. They might have the right topic, but the messaging sucks.

Is it a lack of experience? Poor research? A poor QP strategy? A poor attack team?  A poor performance by the leader? It is most likely a combination of all of those reasons.

You win elections by winning the voters hearts, not appealing to their heads. Throwing numbers at them only appeals to a small segment of the voter pool and many of them already vote Conservative. Scandals and arrogance bring down governments- rarely is it a quick fall, it is the constant barrage of issues over time that wear down a government IE a Prime Minister’s support. Think back- Jane Stewart and the Transitional Job Fund, Chretien and Shawinigate, Paul Martin and the Sponsorship scandal, Dingwal and “Entitled To Their Entitlements.”

WE charity is one example. Yes, there are questions about millions of dollars, but do I care or other voters care, if some wealthy individual feels misused? No, but I feel for those tens of thousands of young school age children and their parents, who saved pennies and loonies to donate to the charity. How many of us know someone who did that for the charity, perhaps you did too?

The same holds true for the vaccine issue which has turned the corner for Trudeau- hence a spring election. Trudeau and his gang of incompetent ministers screwed up big time- their incompetence has contributed to untold misery across this country. Thousands of family members have been lost, many more will be in the months ahead. Canadians feel for those who have lost loved ones, for seniors unable to spend their last days with their family.

Trudeau is throwing money at everyone possible to buy the voter’s hearts. The Liberals know that someone who lost their job, home or business due to Trudeau’s incompetence is an angry voter. They are countering this with our own money- they have to if they want to win. Again, if you are appealing to the voter’s head you count dollars and the hundreds of millions spent. That won’t win the opposition an election.

There is untold misery out there- people have lost their jobs, families are unable to keep their homes, children have to drop out of university. That is a story that appeals to a voter’s heart and the Liberals know it, so they throw money to cool the anger down.

The Liberals screwed up, our vaccine supply is late, we are well behind other countries in vaccinating people. Now seniors can’t see their grandchildren, many people are reluctant to go to a restaurant. Canadians can’t travel and the list goes on, all thanks to this government’s incompetence. That is a message that appeals to the hearts of voters.

Add to the list abuse claims in the military, bullying his female ministers, broken promise after broken promise. Many of those issues appeal to a voter’s heart.

Trudeau is an ex-drama teacher; he can put on a performance that is better than any other Canadian political leader. He can cry on cue, appear sympathetic and sincere when needed. Over many decades, I have attended events with quite a few politicians and party leaders, including one with Trudeau, no one works a crowd better than him.

When you are at 28% in the polls and the party in power has been a disaster, you have to ask yourself “who isn’t ready?”

Keith Beardsley Is a former senior political staffer for 5 Federal Party leaders and a former Deputy Chief of Staff to the Prime Minister for Issues Management including over 16 years involvement with Question Period.