Author: KEITH_BEARDSLEY

Some thoughts as we await to hear about the process for the Conservatives to elect yet another new leader.

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Keith Beardsley

Atory01

Here we go again, yet another Conservative leadership race. Maybe we will get it right this time.

Now that the drama of the last three weeks appears to be over, Conservatives can renew their favourite pastime- electing leaders.

We are all waiting for the rules to be announced. For those who have not been inside a leadership race before- the length of the campaign is key.

A short campaign would definitely favour an elected MP and limit the ability of an outsider to raise funds, sign up members and raise their public profile for voting members. In this case that would help Pierre Poilievre who announced he was running shortly after the coup against O’Toole was over. It would also favour Leslyn Lewis although she has not announced she is running, as well as other MPs who might be considering a run.

Members and the public at large will also learn if any one candidate has significant control of the party apparatus. When forcing leaders out, you usually make sure that headquarters, MPs and party operatives are on board before you dump your leader.

With the Conservatives it is always about their base- protecting it, listening to it etc. and rarely expanding their base to attract more mainstream voters, many of whom reside in vote rich cities in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Harper and Mulroney were able to do that and won government.

The Liberals are a tough opponent, often underestimated by Conservatives. They remind me of the giant blob of the old movies. It changes shape and sucks up whatever policies they think will get them elected, knowing full well it is but a temporary position that is only useful until they gain or keep power in an election.

Can Conservative leadership candidates come up with innovative policies that appeal to their existing base and broaden their base? That remains to be seen.

If it is like the last couple of leadership campaigns, for many Conservative Party members it will be the candidate that you dislike the least who will get your vote.

Here we go again down the rabbit hole while letting Trudeau off the hook yet again.

Trying a new format- a video blog also called a VLOG.

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If media reports are correct, O’Toole has prohibited his MPs from speaking out publicly about Quebec’s racist Bill 21.

While O’Toole says he is personally opposed to this law, he refuses to say that it should be challenged in court. Instead, he lets it continue to fester as a Quebec based issue while both the Liberals and NDP have shifted their positions.

A gag order on this topic is surprising considering the size of the social conservative base in the party’s membership. Religious freedom should be important to the party. Religious freedom was included in Conservative Prime Minister Diefenbaker’s Bill Of Rights passed in 1960,

“Affirming also that men and institutions remain free only when freedom is founded upon respect for moral and spiritual values and the rule of law.”

“It is hereby recognized and declared that in Canada there have existed and shall continue to exist without discrimination by reason of race, national origin, colour, religion or sex, the following human rights and fundamental freedoms, namely,……

• (c) freedom of religion;

Anyone who has been inside the party won’t be surprised that the Conservatives have been ordered to sit this one out and keep their mouths shut. Afterall, they continue to tilt at windmills in Quebec believing that a huge election win there is always just an election away. Then it is another election and another election and another election. Neither do they get that they are increasing the negative image of the party in most major urban areas where we have large pools of multicultural and visible minority voters. So, to win just 10 seats out of 78 in Quebec they sit this important issue out.

This is not the first time the party has done this. I can remember when discussing the banning of asbestos was not permitted. Why? Because we had an MP from there and we took negative hit after negative hit in the media for no logical reason other than putting one MPs riding ahead of health.

I also remember meetings with ministers when attacking supply management was off the table- I bet it still is- again we didn’t want to upset the Quebec dairy industry etc. The party preferred to keep prices paid by consumers artificially high in the hope that they just might win that next mythical election.

MPs who are part of a party that claims to value an individual’s rights and freedoms- can’t talk about Bill 21. Amazing stuff, but not when you have a weak leader hoping to win that next election with all those Quebec seats just waiting to be won. O’Toole is dreaming if he things that will happen.

As the issue of the teacher in Chelsea who was released for wearing a hijab heats up here is an interesting comparison.

John Diefenbaker (former Prime Minister)

I am a Canadian, a free Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship God in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind. (July 1, 1960. From the Canadian Bill of Rights).

Erin O’Toole (Wannabe Prime Minister)

“We would never apply a bill like this on the federal jurisdiction…but it is a question for Quebec to decide.” (Global News 9 December 2021)

“I’ve also said that I will try and respect provincial jurisdiction and the competences of the provincial governments to make decisions like in the case of Quebec,” (Global News 9 December 2021)

Equal rights should mean for all Canadians in all provinces and territories. There shouldn’t be an asterisk that says * except in Quebec.

For over three months the Conservatives have been dealing with one issue that they can’t seem to put to bed.

Pretty much every story on the Conservative Party has focused on just one issue- vaccinations.

It is always a negative story- there is nothing positive in for the Conservatives, no matter how the party tries to spin it. Talk about hanging an anvil around your leader’s neck!

First day back there they were again focused on vaccinations all because some of the Conservative MPs either won’t get vaccinated or won’t say. This is one very dumb hill for the Conservatives to take a stand on.

For the Conservatives its vaccines, vaccines, vaccines while for the public it is get lost and get with the program.

Other Conservative leaders like Doug Ford took decisive action. You don’t see him weighed down with this issue day after day.

With galloping inflation hurting Canadian families and especially seniors this constant distraction dilutes any messaging O’Toole, and his key spokespeople try to get out.

It is often said that politics is a team sport unfortunately some of his caucus is very much offside with the Canadian public and you don’t win elections when voters are reminded of this day after day.

That is quite an anvil some of his caucus have handed to O’Toole.

Yesterday one of our unelected senators decided to try to kick start the process to force a leadership review of O’Toole.

Denise Batters was appointed by Harper on January 25, 2013. Today however, at a time when we need unity to control the agenda in the House and when we need to kick Trudeau off of the front pages, the good senator has decided we need to splinter and keep our leader on the front pages, but as negative unhelpful news not positive news.

Here we have an unelected senator attacking an elected MP and an elected leader from the safety of the Senate. This is a pretty safe spot from which to cause trouble. After all you cannot be turfed (you were never elected), you are not really accountable to anyone and no matter what happens to O’Toole or the party, you will get paid and still have a pension. It is easy to speak out and be brave when you have nothing to lose.

I have been involved in politics for over 50 years and such a move is always interesting.

When this type of thing happens the first question that comes to mind is does she have a future leadership candidate in mind? She didn’t support O’Toole in the last one.

Is there a group or candidate using the safety of the Senator’s position to advance their agenda while they remain anonymous?

I guess we will see. It will be interesting to watch where this goes, but one thing is sure the Liberals will be loving every moment of it.

It must be so much fun to work in the Opposition Leaders Office (OLO) these days. Just think as the House of Commons gets set to return, you have to keep your leader from appearing in public. Why? Because you can’t afford to have him repeatedly asked questions that he can’t answer about his nonvaccinated MPs. Because O’Toole can’t answer the questions, he always looks dumb and weak. Not exactly great optics for your leader and the man who wants to be our next Prime Minister.

That is what the Conservatives should be focused on isn’t it?

Come to think of it, wasn’t this same ant-vax issue one of the reasons the Tories blew the last election?

The OLO Issues management staff must dread going into work in the morning to see which MP went off the rails overnight with some loony statement. Right now, O’Toole’s own MPS led by Marilyn Gladu and her so called civil liberties caucus, which should be named the anti-vax caucus, is taking the lead in giving her leader a rough time.

I can guarantee you the Liberals are going into work every morning and giving each other high 5s with every stupid move and comment that this CPC MP and others make. They can thank the Tories for creating so much negative news for O’Toole and the CPC that they have taken the focus off of Trudeau. The anti-vaxers are making political life so easy for the Liberals.

I am still waiting to see if the anti-vax brigade of Tory MPs will be stupid enough to charge the Hill on opening day demanding to be let in. Now won’t that coverage enhance the image of the Tories to voters. As long as the current bunch of MPs feel they can do and say what they want, the Tories will just sink deeper into the mud and be further away from any electoral comeback.

Right now, O’Toole is trying to play it safe and keep his job as leader. But he is losing control of his caucus and party. How long will it be before he wakes up one morning and decides it isn’t worth it?

“Steven Guilbeault has pulled off his greatest anti-oil stunt. The former Greenpeace activist is now Canada’s minister of environment and climate change.” (Don Braid, Calgary Herald, October 26, 2021).

From breaking the law and climbing on then Premier Klein’s roof at his home, Guilbeault has made it into the big leagues now that Prime Minister Trudeau has made him the environment minister.

Guilbeault proved as Heritage minister that he wasn’t up to the job, doing poorly in committee and Question Period. It will be interesting to see how he does in a position where he should know the facts. But can he keep his environmental activism in check and be realistic about what progress can be made?

I suspect he can’t and won’t. He has to many buddies in the green networks who won’t let him forget his previous beliefs and opinions. The Conservatives shouldn’t either. He should be their number one target because we know from his time at Heritage that he does screw up and go off script.

This is a man with a known bias and someone who has the power to put tens of thousands of people out of work. Every word that he has ever uttered publicly, put in print or been quoted in the media should be in the CPC files.

Watch how he handles the pressure at this upcoming climate conference. My bet is that we will see his first screw up shortly. Whether he screws up in a few days or a few months; for the CPC it is just a matter of when to pounce on him.

The Conservative Party election position on vaccinations and whether or not their candidates should be vaccinated has come back to bite them as we get ready for Parliament to return.

This should have been expected. All their ducking, weaving, and avoiding the issue throughout the campaign was for nothing. But it did hurt O’Toole and the party as it was just one more issue that contributed to voter uneasiness with both the leader and the party. Coming as it did with the anti-vaxer protests and it was a guaranteed way to lose votes and more importantly trust.

The Board of Internal Economy for the House of Commons has decided that all MPS must be vaccinated to enter the parliamentary buildings. Surely the Conservatives must have expected this to happen. Surely, they aren’t dumb enough to expect that it wouldn’t.

The CPC will stand and fight on “Parliamentary Privilege.” Good issue, wrong fight.

Parliamentary privilege is important to protect, especially the ability of MPs to pursue issues, hold the government accountable etc. However, good luck to the party (that rarely has good communication skills) in explaining this one to voters, most of whom won’t care about the issue or who will shrug it off with a tough on them attitude. When your best defence is to try to explain complicated and dull parliament procedures- you have already lost the argument.

The Speaker needs to work out a way for a virtual swearing in and then for those not in compliance, continue to allow them to participate virtually- thus allowing them to continue to do their job.

I can see it now, just before the House of Commons returns, I expect some CPC unvaccinated MPs to arrive at the doors of the House of Commons demanding to be let in while TV cameras take it all in. A mariachi band won’t work with this one, perhaps bugles playing “charge”.

The only losers with this issue are the Conservatives- the Liberals, NDP, Bloc and Greens can sit back and enjoy watching this one unfold.